Bogus numbers
2020-Apr-10, Friday 22:58![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
texxgadgetIve been plotting numbers from the Covid Tracking Project.
They are getting their numbers from state health depts, and the numbers I see are beyond bogus.
Nobody is plotting numbers as percentage of state. I am.
No state has hit 1% yet. NY is like .88 percent.
The REAL numbers must be MUCH higher, but without testing, we cant know how much longer this is going to drag on.
Having NY go up by 10,500 perday is bad, but I think the real number is MUCH higher.
Im going to stick my neck out and say that the real numbers are closer to 20-50x higher.
They claim the curve is flattening, but Im not seeing that in the numbers.
WA held still for 3 days, but went up 500 today.
Im not really seeing anyone flattening their curve much.
In most states, its not going up exponentially, but going up 100 cases a day sure doesnt look flat to me either.
I *THINK* that IF/when we actually see real numbers (wont happen til they test every person in the country)
we are going to find a bunch of people who had it and didnt know it.
This will come as a relief for many who fear catching it, and end up having already beat it.
Theoretically, only 20% have severe symptoms, with the other 80 just having a crappy week in bed.
It is appearing that out of that 80, a number might not even realize theyve been sick.
Its been a stressful year and that could mask alot.
This would indicate that the 80% non severe symtom group contains a sizable subset of never symptomatic.
At this point, Im hanging in there, but furious that they havent been doing MORE testing,
and furious about health depts who should know better transporting busloads of cruiseship passengers,
mixing the sick with the non sick.
The Fanfolk/Fairefolk/Entertainerfolk cohort is not a healthy one as a whole and Im fearing the casualties
from those groups.
When Dad became President of Berkeley Folk Dancers this year, one of the first things he did was
put all medical people from the group into a comittee along with a professor of epidemiology.
They suspended operations at the end of Feb just before things started getting really bad.
They had already stopped partner dancing and had gone to non contact line dances only.
They are getting their numbers from state health depts, and the numbers I see are beyond bogus.
Nobody is plotting numbers as percentage of state. I am.
No state has hit 1% yet. NY is like .88 percent.
The REAL numbers must be MUCH higher, but without testing, we cant know how much longer this is going to drag on.
Having NY go up by 10,500 perday is bad, but I think the real number is MUCH higher.
Im going to stick my neck out and say that the real numbers are closer to 20-50x higher.
They claim the curve is flattening, but Im not seeing that in the numbers.
WA held still for 3 days, but went up 500 today.
Im not really seeing anyone flattening their curve much.
In most states, its not going up exponentially, but going up 100 cases a day sure doesnt look flat to me either.
I *THINK* that IF/when we actually see real numbers (wont happen til they test every person in the country)
we are going to find a bunch of people who had it and didnt know it.
This will come as a relief for many who fear catching it, and end up having already beat it.
Theoretically, only 20% have severe symptoms, with the other 80 just having a crappy week in bed.
It is appearing that out of that 80, a number might not even realize theyve been sick.
Its been a stressful year and that could mask alot.
This would indicate that the 80% non severe symtom group contains a sizable subset of never symptomatic.
At this point, Im hanging in there, but furious that they havent been doing MORE testing,
and furious about health depts who should know better transporting busloads of cruiseship passengers,
mixing the sick with the non sick.
The Fanfolk/Fairefolk/Entertainerfolk cohort is not a healthy one as a whole and Im fearing the casualties
from those groups.
When Dad became President of Berkeley Folk Dancers this year, one of the first things he did was
put all medical people from the group into a comittee along with a professor of epidemiology.
They suspended operations at the end of Feb just before things started getting really bad.
They had already stopped partner dancing and had gone to non contact line dances only.
