New York will hit herd immunity soon
2020-May-04, Monday 18:49![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
texxgadgetIve been holding onto what little sanity I have by doing math.
The Imperial College of Medicine has estimated that the real number of cases is actually 30x to 50x the published numbers in the US.
New York had some bad days where the caseload jumped by 10k cases from day to day and one day it was 11k case
increase from one day to the next.
NY is increasing much slower than that now with only 3k increase from day to day.
Well NYs 30x number is about to break 50% which means NY will hit herd immunity when the 30x number hits 60%.
I cant paste my graph on here, But Id say NJ hill hit it by the end of the month.
RI & MA have their 30x numbers at 25%.
Everyone else is way behind that with CA in th 4% - 6% range.
WA & LA have done great jobs of flattening their curves, but WA 30 & 50x numbers are 6-10%.
The Imperial College of Medicine has estimated that the real number of cases is actually 30x to 50x the published numbers in the US.
New York had some bad days where the caseload jumped by 10k cases from day to day and one day it was 11k case
increase from one day to the next.
NY is increasing much slower than that now with only 3k increase from day to day.
Well NYs 30x number is about to break 50% which means NY will hit herd immunity when the 30x number hits 60%.
I cant paste my graph on here, But Id say NJ hill hit it by the end of the month.
RI & MA have their 30x numbers at 25%.
Everyone else is way behind that with CA in th 4% - 6% range.
WA & LA have done great jobs of flattening their curves, but WA 30 & 50x numbers are 6-10%.
