The Burning of CA, 2020 edition
2020-Aug-21, Friday 13:17![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
texxgadgetThe world is an unpleasant place to say the least.
Last weekend, while i was in Willits, a string of lighning strikes has ignited California.
The last time we had a bunch of lighnting fires, they were still fighting them in Dec.
With this and the politics, its gonna be a LOOOOOONG FALL...
The penninsula is burning from Pescadero to santa Cruz west of Skyline.
The historic Big Basin Park HQ building is gone.
So far, the fire hasnt crossed Skyline of hwy9.
The evac zone goes all the way to Scotts Valley.
Felton is right in the middle of the firezone.
A series of fires have burned together around Lake Berryessa.
Northern Vacaville got singed.
Non essential personnel have been evacuated from Travis AFB.
The fire crossed and closed I-80.
Another complex of fires is burning from Sunol to south of Mt Hamilton with evacuations from south of Livermore to Patterson.
East San Jose is under evacuation, and Gilroy & Morgan Hill are being told to prepare.
Im used to PGE burning down a new town every fall, usually late Oct, early Nov.
For once, its not PGE fault. Its also mid Aug. YIKES!
This weekend, they are going to try to do an evacuation drill for El Cerrito.
The smell of smoke in the air hasnt permeated the house, yet and its not as strong outside as it was last Oct.
The sky has been white since the weekend and there is a brown spot in the sky where the sun is supposed to be.
Ive been number crunching the virus stats.
When the positive cases hits 70% of population, herd immunity starts to kick in and rates chould decline quickly.
The 30x - 50x times reported tests for the REAL numbers have been presumed to be the way to go.
When NY hit 80% on the 50x, I stopped tracking with that correction factor.
Recently the 30x correction factor indicated that FL LA & AZ had broken 70%.
I dont see the plateau that should have happened there if 30x was right.
Im now tracking 10x 15x 20x & 25x to see if I get a pattern.
AZ got better sooner than herd would have, likely from closing the bars.
When I see an inflection point, Ill report it here.
With the 30x correction, CA is a month from herd.
I suspect that as testing gets marginally better, the correction factor needs to be titrated down.
I fully expect a vaccine approval by years end, possibly multiple.
Odds are good that the Whitehouse will change hands, but there will be scorched earth left behind.
The US will probably be sabotogued to make the incoming party totally hamstrung.
This means that any mass vaccination will be on hold as the government wrestles to get semi functional again.
Aside from frontline workers, I dont see much vaccination before June.
I dont see it possible to vaccinate 330million people the twicwee it will require before fall 2021.
We also have the antivaxxers and the Christians, so we will be lucky to get 60% of the country vaccinated in the end.
Given time, Darwin will cull the antivaxxers and the Christians, and only then with things start going back to normal.
There will be privilidges denied to the non vaccinated, so the whole "mark of the beast" will pop up.
The Christians will be a major problem.
Ill post on the Willits trip later.
Yet another can of worms.
Last weekend, while i was in Willits, a string of lighning strikes has ignited California.
The last time we had a bunch of lighnting fires, they were still fighting them in Dec.
With this and the politics, its gonna be a LOOOOOONG FALL...
The penninsula is burning from Pescadero to santa Cruz west of Skyline.
The historic Big Basin Park HQ building is gone.
So far, the fire hasnt crossed Skyline of hwy9.
The evac zone goes all the way to Scotts Valley.
Felton is right in the middle of the firezone.
A series of fires have burned together around Lake Berryessa.
Northern Vacaville got singed.
Non essential personnel have been evacuated from Travis AFB.
The fire crossed and closed I-80.
Another complex of fires is burning from Sunol to south of Mt Hamilton with evacuations from south of Livermore to Patterson.
East San Jose is under evacuation, and Gilroy & Morgan Hill are being told to prepare.
Im used to PGE burning down a new town every fall, usually late Oct, early Nov.
For once, its not PGE fault. Its also mid Aug. YIKES!
This weekend, they are going to try to do an evacuation drill for El Cerrito.
The smell of smoke in the air hasnt permeated the house, yet and its not as strong outside as it was last Oct.
The sky has been white since the weekend and there is a brown spot in the sky where the sun is supposed to be.
Ive been number crunching the virus stats.
When the positive cases hits 70% of population, herd immunity starts to kick in and rates chould decline quickly.
The 30x - 50x times reported tests for the REAL numbers have been presumed to be the way to go.
When NY hit 80% on the 50x, I stopped tracking with that correction factor.
Recently the 30x correction factor indicated that FL LA & AZ had broken 70%.
I dont see the plateau that should have happened there if 30x was right.
Im now tracking 10x 15x 20x & 25x to see if I get a pattern.
AZ got better sooner than herd would have, likely from closing the bars.
When I see an inflection point, Ill report it here.
With the 30x correction, CA is a month from herd.
I suspect that as testing gets marginally better, the correction factor needs to be titrated down.
I fully expect a vaccine approval by years end, possibly multiple.
Odds are good that the Whitehouse will change hands, but there will be scorched earth left behind.
The US will probably be sabotogued to make the incoming party totally hamstrung.
This means that any mass vaccination will be on hold as the government wrestles to get semi functional again.
Aside from frontline workers, I dont see much vaccination before June.
I dont see it possible to vaccinate 330million people the twicwee it will require before fall 2021.
We also have the antivaxxers and the Christians, so we will be lucky to get 60% of the country vaccinated in the end.
Given time, Darwin will cull the antivaxxers and the Christians, and only then with things start going back to normal.
There will be privilidges denied to the non vaccinated, so the whole "mark of the beast" will pop up.
The Christians will be a major problem.
Ill post on the Willits trip later.
Yet another can of worms.
