My math might be better than I thought

[texxgadget]

Ive been crunching the SARS2-COV19 numbers every few days.
Im only tracking the cases, not hospitalization etc.

The reported numbers are a gross undercount, so a correction factor is in order.
In May when NY was out of control, I rapidly discarded the 50x correction factor.

This month, I discarded the 30x correction factor.
There were the Stanford & USC random sampling studies that pretty much validated the 30x correction factor.

As testing has improved, the correction factor needs to be backed down.
Or so I thought, when I fell back to a 20x correction factor.

Because the US botched the initial response, this whole crisis has dragged on.
People are so sick of the masks, the distancing, the closures etc.
In Berlin, they are having protests in the streets against masks.

I expect multiple vaccine approvals at the end of the year.
Im actually surprised that the Whitehouse hasnt threatened the FDA
to force approval of one ahead of schedule to help on the election.

With approvals at the end of the year, we still face chaos in DC.
If the Dems win, Trump will leave scorched earth in DC that will take
months just to get the govt up and running.

Even without the chaos, I would still expect it to take 6-9 mo to get
330 million people vaccinated twice, keeping us out of the office until fall 21.

Ive even joked that we might get herd immunity before we get a vaccine.

Uh... errr....
Im not joking anymore.

I thought I had a bug in my math.
Enter Ben Gurion Unioversity in Israel.
This morning they suggested that CA & NY might be entering herd immunity NOW.
They also suggest that herd might kick in at less than 60% of cases.
Ive been running the numbers conservatively, figuring herd at 70.

Maybe my math isnt as bogus as I thought?